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| From: | vella | Nov-3 4:14 pm |
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(1 of 52) | | | | 95457.1 | |
If the chances of winning each game are 50%, then the odds are 25% or 3 to 1 we'll win the Series. If you put rose colored glasses on & assume the average odds of winning games 6 & 7 are 60%, then we have a 36% or about 1.8 to 1 chance of winning the Series. If you're fairly pessimistic & assume we have an average of 40% chance of winning games 6 & 7, then we have a 16% or about a 5 to 1 chance of winning the Series. My best guess is that we have about 44% to 47% chance of winning game 6 & about 48% to 52% chance of winning game 7. That gives us a chance of about 23% of winning the Series. The magic number in statistical probability is 70%. Which means the Phillies should have at least a 30% probability for a reasonable chance to win it all. That means we have to hope that we have about a 51% of winning game 6 & about a 60% chance of winning game 7. With this team, that's possible. |
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| | | | | 95457.2 in reply to 95457.1 | |
We have a 50% chance of winning game 6 and a 50% of winning game 7. Therefore we have a 50% of winning the World Series. |
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| | | | | 95457.4 in reply to 95457.2 | |
| actually thats a 25% chance of winning the WS Iverson- We're talking about practice. We're not even talking about the game, the actual game, when it matters. We're talking about practice." |
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| | | | | 95457.5 in reply to 95457.2 | |
<We have a 50% chance of winning game 6 and a 50% of winning game 7. Therefore we have a 50% of winning the World Series.> Please tell me that you're trying to be funny or God help the state of education in this country.
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| | | | | 95457.6 in reply to 95457.3 | |
<you have 50% chance of having a life> Which is more than your cholesterol laden physique-e-wreck. |
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| | | | | 95457.7 in reply to 95457.5 | |
| No I'm serious. Each event has to be taken independently. The second event cannot happen unless the first event is a 100% win. You can't lose game 1 and win game 2. Since we have a 50% chance of winning game 1, we have a 50% of winning the World Series. |
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| | | | | 95457.9 in reply to 95457.7 | |
I have to give you credit for explanation & intellect. Actually, you're over-thinking. Take a coin & flip it twice & look at the possibilities. |
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| | | | | 95457.10 in reply to 95457.9 | |
Well if we're getting techincal we actually have a 33.3% chance of winning the WS. There are 3 possible outcomes Outcome 1
GM 1 LOSS Outcome 2
GM 1 WIN
GM 2 LOSS Outcome 3
GM 1 WIN
GM 2 WIN EDIT: It's not like flipping a coin.
Edited 11/3/2009 4:58 pm ET by Snotbubbles1 |
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| | | | | 95457.11 in reply to 95457.10 | |
| Iverson is the only statistician among you, it's 25%, 2 independent events each with a 50% chance, .5 * .5 = .25. |
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| | | | | 95457.12 in reply to 95457.11 | |
So what is the Yankees chances of winning the World Series? We both can't have a 25% chance. Can we? |
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| | | | | 95457.13 in reply to 95457.10 | |
Now, you're losing it. Back to your first point. Each independent event is 50%. Taken as a whole, the odds are 25% (FROM THIS POINT - NOW). My statement is at this point, now, the odds are 25%. You're figuring the odds after the first event occurred, thus coming up with 33%. |
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| | | | | 95457.14 in reply to 95457.1 | |
What is the statistical probability that life could exist on Earth? One in one-hundred billion quadrillion? The absurdity of answering a subjective question with a mathematical statement misses the whole point. Its entirely a question of mind-set, and so forth. Look at the 1980 Olympic Hockey team. They had NO CHANCE at beating the Russians, or if you put a number on it, infinitesimal. Yet they won. Numbers cannot explain how that happened, and therefore mean absolutely nothing. Also the other guy is right. You have to talk about game 6, and then game 7. Not as a single issue. |
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| | | | | 95457.15 in reply to 95457.12 | |
<We both can't have a 25% chance. Can we?> Please stop trying to be funny, I'm trying to be serious.
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| | | | | 95457.16 in reply to 95457.14 | |
<They had NO CHANCE at beating the Russians, or if you put a number on it, infinitesimal. Yet they won. Numbers cannot explain how that happened, and therefore mean absolutely nothing.> That's why it will happen only once in the history of mankind. I'd say the odds were fairly accurate.
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| | | | | 95457.17 in reply to 95457.1 | |
When I was getting my bachelor's degree in math education (thinking I was going to grow up to be a math teacher and coach), we had a kid in one statistics class who had a slightly different outlook. His philosophy: everything has a 50-50 chance...either it will happen, or it won't happen. So, employing his reasoning, I'd say we've got a 50-50 chance....either we will win it or we won't! :) Go Phillies! |
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| | | | | 95457.18 in reply to 95457.14 | |
<Also the other guy is right. You have to talk about game 6, and then game 7. Not as a single issue.> Maybe we should agree the confusion is semantics as opposed to the state of literacy in this country.
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| | | | | 95457.19 in reply to 95457.17 | |
<So, employing his reasoning, I'd say we've got a 50-50 chance....either we will win it or we won't! :)> Now, I have to stop trying to be diplomatic. You are the third guy already that has gotten it wrong. I only have myself to blame for arguing with morons. |
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| | | | | 95457.20 in reply to 95457.15 | |
I am admittedly not a statistician, but the second event is dependent on the first event being a certain outcome. So like flipping a coin. You have a 25% chance of flipping heads twice, but you have to factor in that the second flip won't happen if the first flip is a tail. No?
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